Unsettled summer predicted by New Zealand forecaster

Posted on: 8th February, 2016

Category: Home, Garden & Environment

Contributor: West Cork People

Ken Ring of www.predictweather.com is author of the Weather Almanac for Ireland for 2016.
Here he gives us a look at what to expect for the coming year.

The suggestion that strong El Ninos would cause harsh winters for Ireland is without base. 1982-83 and 1997-98 were considered strong El Nino years but there were no harsh UK winters then. The weak El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.

That this winter would be mild for Ireland, with no long severe cold spells, is written in our almanacs of both 2015 and 2016. However,  Ireland will still receive occasional wintry spells, for example in the third week of February.

Some are wondering why winter has been so wet. Mild winters will always be wet. Consider the opposite – colder air creates higher pressure systems because colder air is heavier. High pressure systems bring dry weather. Warmer winter air feeds clouds, which must fall as rain. Some comfort can be taken from the fact that January is for 2016 its wettest month, and February the driest. The next wettest month should be November, so once we all get through January we won’t have to face floods as frequently.

So what can we expect in coming months? There may be chances of light snow flutters in the hills around the end of January and beginning of February, frosts February 6-15, and three lots of frost or snow in March (March 4, 10, 19). And also possible snow around April 20-27, which will get some media attention because it is quite late. Then we will have to wait until mid November for the next subzero minimum. Any dry periods exceeding four days may not be until most of the first half of February (3-13), the last week of February (23-29), the last week of March (23-31).

FEBRUARY is interesting as regards daytime temperatures. After mid February, winds from the south draw warm air up to possibly around 14-15C by February 23 and 24. Then conditions go windy between February 17-26 and snow is a possibility around February 17. The month is mostly cloudy.   

MARCH is a month of mild temperatures, with about two or three of daytime maximums reaching to above 10C, only dipping below 10C on about six days. Conditions will be good for snow around March 3, 10 and 19.  There are risks of flooding around the middle of March.

APRIL is likely to be cooler than the winter months in the last week of the month, with the possibility of snow around April 23. The last week in April also brings the first decent spell of sunshine. But in April  there are no lengthy dry spells.

MAY brings the last risks of flooding for the year in the second week. It dries up after May 22 and that dry spell extends until June 3. That is nearly two weeks of settled conditions and which will be the best of the summer, and with the last week in May set to deliver the sunniest spell for the year.

JUNE is also sunny June 21-25 but is expected to be fairly shortlived

JULY  is dry for about eight days for some of the second and third weeks (9-17), then August (5-8), but then no dry spell until September 28-October 3.

Readers can calculate for themselves which will be warmer Ireland summers. The sun supplies the heat, which varies in an 11.8 year cycle, or about 12 and 22-23 years. To work out warmer summers, let us remember the warm summer of 1995. Adding 11-12 gives us the pleasant summer of 2006, and adding 23 gives us that the next decent summer with long dry periods will be 2018. Until then, that is, 2016 and 2017, should just be typically mild summers with occasional dry spells but nothing spectacular.

So don’t get your hopes too high – summer will be cool and unsettled overall, earlier than expected with some good dry intervals but no prolonged heat waves. The highest temperature may be about 24C towards the end of May (28-29)

As for wind, by averaging estimated wind force values across the months we estimate that January is the windiest and May the calmest. The order of overall average-windiest months, as listed in the almanac are January, November, December, March, August, February, April, July, September, October, June and May, which seems to be bearing out. So winter is windy, followed by a calm spring and summer, then a breezy autumn.

In terms of the whole year,  it will turn out to be a slightly wetter although sunnier year and warmer than standard 30-year average. The largest amount of precipitation in one region and month is in January in central counties.

Quick statistics:    
Wettest month: January  followed by November.
Driest month: February, followed by May.
Sunniest month: May followed by September.
Cloudiest month: February followed by January.
Warmest month: August (especially August 18-21 with temperatures in low 20Cs), followed by September.
Coolest month: January, followed by February and April.
Windiest month: January followed by November.
Calmest month: May, followed by June.

Winter brings average rain,  above average temperatures. but average to less sunshine. Spring brings average rain and temperatures, (except warmer overall in Connaught) and less sunshine than average. Summer brings average rain,  average temperatures (but cooler overall in Ulster and Leinster) and below average sunshine. Autumn is warmer and sunnier than the norm, with average rain.

For more information, and how to order the Weather Almanac for Ireland for 2016, visit www.predictweather.com.

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Visiting restrictions in place at Bantry General Hospital due to Flu Presentations

Strict visitor restrictions have been put in place with immediate effect at Bantry General Hospital due to the number of patients who have presented with flu like symptoms.

In the interest of patient care and in order to restrict the spread of the flu virus within the hospital, it is necessary with immediate effect to ban all visitors to Bantry General Hospital, with the exception of following: critically ill patients are restricted to one visitor per critically ill patient and confined to visiting times only, and attendance at the Medical Assessment Unit (MAU) and Local Injury Unit (LIU) should only take place if absolutely necessary, only one relative per patient attending these areas.

The elderly, children, pregnant women or young adults, those with chronic illnesses or vulnerable others are advised not to visit. Outpatient, Day care services and routine hospital admissions are not affected.

All infection control measures are in place and every effort is being made to manage and contain the spread of the flu virus.

People with flu like symptoms are advised to contact their GP by phone in the first instance and avoid presenting at the Emergency Department at Bantry General Hospital.

Bantry hospital staff are asking people to think about all their care and treatment options and keep ED services for the patients who need them most. Others with a less serious illness can be treated by their GP or out of hours GP service where their GP can refer them to an Assessment Unit the following day if required.
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8th January, 2018  ·  

West Cork People - The Best Free Read in West Cork shared Cope Foundation's Happy Christmas from Cope Foundation. ... See MoreSee Less

What makes Christmas special? Children and adults we support, our incredible staff, families and supporters - these are the people who make our organisation so special every single day, but especially at Christmas! Meet some of them here... Thank you to the wonderful team at AV3 Media who kindly produced this video for us as a Christmas gift! To make a Christmas donation today, go to www.cope-foundation.ie/donate. We believe that together we can do great things and with your support we can do so much more! Please SHARE our video so that more people can learn about the amazing things that happen at Cope Foundation! Evening Echo; Irish Examiner; The Southern Star; The Avondhu; Cork Independent; West Cork Times; West Cork People - The Best Free Read in West Cork; Bandon Opinion/The Opinion; Vale Star; East Cork Journal; Cork Chamber - Faces of Cork Business; Cork City FC; Cork Institute of Technology - CIT; University College Cork; Corks RedFM 104-106; The KC Show Corks 96 FM; Cork's 96FM; Cork's Best; C103 Cork; Cork Airport; Cork Opera House: The Everyman; Cork County Council; County Cork; Cork City Council; CorkLike; CCCahoots; Cork On Ice; Glow Cork; CIT Cork School of Music; RTÉ Today; Ciaran Bermingham - Actor; Rob & Marian Heffernan; John Spillane; Ger Wolfe; Eimear O'Brien PR; Jack O Rourke; Theo Dorgan; Mahon Point Shopping Centre; Blackpool Shopping Centre & Retail Park

18th December, 2017  ·  

This is the real spirit of Christmas at Caseys of Clonakilty. ... See MoreSee Less

Are you alone or do you know someone who will be alone this Christmas? If so, then we here at Casey’s would like to make your day that little bit easier. We are offering a full Christmas dinner on us! Christmas dinners can be collected Christmas Eve from 12:30pm - 8:30pm. Wishing everyone a very happy Christmas from everyone at Casey’s

15th December, 2017  ·  

RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta’s has just announced its Christmas schedule and it features several programmes of interest to listeners in West Cork.

On New Year’s Day at 12.08 pm we’ll hear highlights from the Éigse Dhiarmuidín Festival that took place in West Cork in early December, remembering musician and broadcaster Diarmuid Ó Súilleabháin. An Nollaig ar Oileán Chléire is an archive show presented by Mícheál Ó Sé on Wednesday 27 December at 5.30 pm about Christmas on Cape Clear and on Friday 29 December and 5 January at 7 pm, Peadar Ó Riada will bring us very special editions of his Cuireadh chun Ceoil programme from Múscraí. Keep an ear out!
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15th December, 2017  ·  

West Cork People - The Best Free Read in West Cork shared Garda Síochána - Cork, Kerry & Limerick - Southern Region's photo. ... See MoreSee Less

REMINDER: An Garda Siochana are hosting a Retail Crime Prevention Meeting, to be held at 7pm on Wednesday 29th November 2017. This meeting will be held in the Munster Arms Hotel in Bandon. This meeting is one of a series being held across the West Cork Garda Division, in association with Operation Thor, the Garda National Anti-Crime Strategy. The purpose of the meeting is to increase the cooperation between Gardai and the retail sector, ensuring that the current low levels of crime in the locality extends past the busy approaching Christmas season. The meeting will be addressed by the local Crime Prevention Officer, Sergeant Ian O’ Callaghan, who will discuss burglary prevention, shoplifting, fraud, and cybercrime. There will be a particular focus on cash handling and cash exposure of businesses in the run up to the Christmas shopping period. All aspects of commercial crime will be discussed, and we would strongly urge all businesses to make a special effort to attend on the evening.

28th November, 2017  ·  

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